A brief introduction - one of my favorite posters on this site and a friend of mine is Medina64. He has demonstrated his knowledge and passion on many topics but clearly has an wealth of knowledge on Anthropogenic (man-made) global warming - AGW. I thought it would be informative and beneficial to get him to share his thoughts with all of us. Thanks M64!
OK, here is my response to COD’s call for
AGW guest blogs. I’m not going to talk
about the technical aspects of AGW - IPCC, RealClimate, Tamino, and, of course,
Jim Hansen (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
) do that infinitely better than I could.
Instead, I want to talk about how we lost our focus on AGW.
First, some context.
The IPCC has said that we should limit CO2 to no more than 450 ppm and
this was the generally accepted thought until about 5 or 6 years ago when
Hansen and his colleagues began investigating in detail the effects of allowing
CO2 to reach that level. Part of the
impetus behind this was that the last time we had that much CO2 in the
atmosphere was about 50 million years ago, when it was much warmer and there
were no polar ice caps. The results of
these investigations are summarized here, http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126 , and
in his book “Storms of My Grandchildren”. The conclusions are, broadly, that at 450 ppm we risk crossing a tipping
point from which we will not be able to retreat and which will have severe
consequences for both human civilization and the biosphere in general - we have
all evolved to live in much different conditions that will exist at 450
ppm. Furthermore, if we continue to burn
coal, oil, gas, and tap into the Athabascan tar sands, consequently pushing CO2
concentration well above 450 ppm, there is a significant, non-zero, probability
that the Earth could become like Venus, essentially wiping out all life on the
planet. For reference, we are currently
at 392 ppm and are going up at 3 ppm/yr.
Therefore, for people with young kids or grandchildren, it is very
likely that those kids will be confronted with the changes associated with CO2
at or above 450 ppm. That thought was
the main impetus for Hansen to write his first and only book.
With that context, how did we get to this point? When Hansen gave his now famous talk before
Congress in 1988 it seemed like we were going to get our shit together and face
this problem (note, LBJ mentioned the need to do something about AGW in a
message to Congress in 1965). The story of
why change was stalled is told in http://www.merchantsofdoubt.org/
. Essentially there were a handful of
very good scientists: Fred Seitz – physicist and former president of the
National Academy of Science, Fred Singer – physicist and a leader in the
development of the first weather satellites, William Nierenberg – physicist and
onetime head of the Scripps Institute, and Robert Jastrow – physicist and one
time head of Goddard Institute of Space Studies. All had worked on Cold War projects and
Seitz, Nierenberg, and Jastrow had worked on the atomic bomb during WW II. For various reasons, these guys were pissed
off – a lot of it had to do with the opposition that occurred to Star Wars,
some of it was personal friction with other scientists, and some of it was the
feeling that the country was being taken over by people who didn’t understand
Communism or the importance of the Cold War. They then recruited others with similar feelings. The fight began with denying that cigarette
smoking causes cancer (to this day, leading climate denier and brilliant scientist
Richard Lindzen says that it has not been proven that cigarettes cause cancer),
then moved on to denying that coal burning causes acid rain, that CFCs were
causing holes in the ozone layer, that second hand cigarette smoke causes
cancer, that global warming is real, and are now involved in attacking Rachel
Carson and saying that DDT is not a problem.
Denial started out for reasons of ego, pride, and being
pissed at others but as time went on, and the big money began to flow, and
there was an economic incentive to do it also. Early in cigarette/cancer fight, the strategy adopted was to attack the
science and scientists behind the claims, even though the tobacco companies
themselves had proven in the early 60’s that cigarettes cause cancer. This strategy was refined as time went on and
applied to all subsequent fights. OK, at
this point, those who have kept reading are probably wondering how I keep my
tin hat on when the wind is blowing and when am I going to start talking about
the New World Order. In response, I ask
you to go to http://www.legacy.library.ucsf.edu/
which is the Legacy Tobacco Document Library (LTDL) which was formed to house
and maintain internal documents obtained during the lawsuits that occurred
against the seven major tobacco companies.
Do some or all of the following searches:
- Global warming – Why the fuck are there hundreds of docs in the LTDL concerned with AGW? Turns out the tobacco industry was also a large funder of AGW denial.
- The names of the above scientists – look at some of what they authored and proposed.
- “A Challenge to Scientific Judgment” – written in 94, note one of the coauthors is Sallie Baliunas, a noted AGW denier who has had to eat her words on several occasions. In this doc we learn that asbestos is fine for brakes, acid rain is not a problem, we need to loosen pesticide regulations, PCBs aren’t a problem, AGW is BS, and there is no problem with the ozone layer.
- “Bad Science A Resource Book” – this was a pamphlet put together by the tobacco companies that essentially laid out templates for attacking the science behind second hand smoke/cancer. The templates require little change to refer to AGW.
All right, I’m almost done. What is the issue here? A core
group of scientists (with no expertise in many of the fields they were publicly
attacking those who did) created a denial methodology based on attacking
legitimate science and scientists in order to achieve their goals. In my opinion, one of the unintended
consequences of this has been to diminish scientific credibility in the
public’s eye. That is not good. But I also think it shows how we as humans
behave, we are not rational, we operate on motives that, after a while, are
probably not clear even to us, and if we repeat incorrect shit over and over we
begin to believe it ourselves. This has
been true throughout history (http://www.physicstoday.org/resource/1/phtoad/v64/i10/p39_s1?bypassSSO=1
), Einstein got death threats over relativity and cancelled talks because of
them, in the mid 18th century a guy made his living debating
astronomers all over England claiming the earth was flat – and winning in the
public eye, or for today’s equivalent go to http://www.galileowaswrong.com/galileowaswrong/
. In the past, science has eventually
won out – with AGW it is not clear who will win, nature is a tough competitor. Carl Sagan famously said that probably the
reason we have not received any alien broadcasts after years of searching is
that once a species is advanced enough to do that it is advanced enough to
destroy itself, and probably does.