So what has my dander up?
That people don’t realize, that at a minimum during the recent Wall Street Crash beginning September 16, 2008 there was plenty of criminal intent. Not criminal intent like I accidentally didn't fill out the right form but rather I can make a boat load of money while defrauding you. We were cheated in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
According to Matt Taibbi (who in my opinion is a great reporter)
Nobody goes to jail. This is the mantra of the financial-crisis era, one that saw virtually every major bank and financial company on Wall Street embroiled in obscene criminal scandals that impoverished millions and collectively destroyed hundreds of billions, in fact, trillions of dollars of the world’s wealth — and nobody went to jail. Nobody, that is, except Bernie Madoff, a flamboyant and pathological celebrity con artist, whose victims happened to be other rich and famous people. The rest of them, all of them, got off. Not a single executive who ran the companies that cooked up and cashed in on the phony financial boom — an industry-wide scam that involved the mass sale of mismarked, fraudulent mortgage-backed securities — has ever been convicted
So why no criminal charges?? - the NY Times ran an article asking that very question.
As the crisis was starting to deepen in the spring of 2008, the Federal Bureau of Investigation scaled back a plan to assign more field agents to investigate mortgage fraud. That summer, the Justice Department also rejected calls to create a task force devoted to mortgage-related investigations, leaving these complex cases understaffed and poorly funded, and only much later established a more general financial crimes task force.
Leading up to the financial crisis, many officials said in interviews, regulators failed in their crucial duty to compile the information that traditionally has helped build criminal cases. In effect, the same dynamic that helped enable the crisis — weak regulation — also made it harder to pursue fraud in its aftermath.
A more aggressive mind-set could have spurred far more prosecutions this time, officials involved in the S.&L. cleanup said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/14/business/14prosecute.html?pagewanted=all
I thought I would go to the source.
A Senate Subcommittee on Investigations, chaired by Democrat Carl Levin of Michigan, alongside Republican Tom Coburn of Oklahoma released a 650-page report
“Wall Street and the Financial Crisis: Anatomy of a Financial Collapse,”
It has been described as an unusually scathing bipartisan report also includes case studies of Washington Mutual and Deutsche Bank, providing a panoramic portrait of a bubble era that produced the most destructive crime spree in our history — "a million fraud cases a year" is how one former regulator puts it. But the mountain of evidence collected against Goldman by Levin's small, 15-desk office of investigators — details of gross, baldfaced fraud delivered up in such quantities as to almost serve as a kind of sarcastic challenge to the curiously impassive Justice Department —
I searched for and downloaded the report. I searched the report for the word “Goldman” and then excerpted the majority of the hits. The report speaks for itself. We all should be pretty pissed about this.
So without further ado – the rest of the blog is directly excerpted from the senate report. It's a little long but so worth it.
Enjoy it, you paid for it it spades.
The Goldman Sachs case study focuses on how it used net short positions to benefit from the downturn in the mortgage market, and designed, marketed, and sold CDOs in ways that created conflicts of interest with the firm’s clients and at times led to the banks profiting from the same products that caused substantial losses for its clients.
Two case studies, involving Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, illustrate a variety troubling practices that raise conflicts of interest and other concerns involving RMBS, CDS, and ABX related financial instruments that contributed to the financial crisis.
Throughout 2007, Goldman sold RMBS and CDO securities to its clients without disclosing its own net short position against the subprime market or its purchase of CDS contracts to gain from the loss in value of some of the very securities it was selling to its clients.
From 2004 to 2008, Goldman was a major player in the U.S. mortgage market. In 2006 and 2007 alone, it designed and underwrote 93 RMBS and 27 mortgage related CDO securitizations totaling about $100 billion, bought and sold RMBS and CDO securities on behalf of its clients, and amassed its own multi-billion-dollar proprietary mortgage related holdings. In December 2006, however, when it saw evidence that the high risk mortgages underlying many RMBS and CDO securities were incurring accelerated rates of delinquency and default, Goldman quietly and abruptly reversed course.
Over the next two months, it rapidly sold off or wrote down the bulk of its existing subprime RMBS and CDO inventory, and began building a short position that would allow it to profit from the decline of the mortgage market. Throughout 2007, Goldman twice built up and cashed in sizeable mortgage related short positions. At its peak, Goldman’s net short position totaled $13.9 billion. Overall in 2007, its net short position produced record profits totaling $3.7 billion for Goldman’s Structured Products Group, which when combined with other mortgage losses, produced record net revenues of $1.1 billion for the Mortgage Department as a whole.
Throughout 2007, Goldman sold RMBS and CDO securities to its clients without disclosing its own net short position against the subprime market or its purchase of CDS contracts to gain from the loss in value of some of the very securities it was selling to its clients.
The case study examines in detail four CDOs that Goldman constructed and sold called Hudson 1, Anderson, Timberwolf, and Abacus 2007-AC1. In some cases, Goldman transferred risky assets from its own inventory into these CDOs; in others, it included poor quality assets that were likely to lose value or not perform. In three of the CDOs, Hudson, Anderson and Timberwolf, Goldman took a substantial portion of the short side of the CDO, essentially betting that the assets within the CDO would fall in value or not perform. Goldman’s short position was in direct opposition to the clients to whom it was selling the CDO securities, yet it failed to disclose the size and nature of its short position while marketing the securities.
While Goldman sometimes included obscure language in its marketing materials about the possibility of its taking a short position on the CDO securities it was selling, Goldman did not disclose to potential investors when it had already determined to take or had already taken short investments that would pay off if the particular security it was selling, or RMBS and CDO securities in general, performed poorly. In the case of Hudson 1, for example, Goldman took 100% of the short side of the $2 billion CDO, betting against the assets referenced in the CDO, and sold the Hudson securities to investors without disclosing its short position. When the securities lost value, Goldman made a $1.7 billion gain at the direct expense of the clients to whom it had sold the securities.
In the case of Anderson, Goldman selected a large number of poorly performing assets for the CDO, took 40% of the short position, and then marketed Anderson securities to its clients. When a client asked how Goldman “got comfortable” with the New Century loans in the CDO, Goldman personnel tried to dispel concerns about the loans, and did not disclose the firm’s own negative view of them or its short position in the CDO.
In the case of Timberwolf, Goldman sold the securities to its clients even as it knew the securities were falling in value. In some cases, Goldman knowingly sold Timberwolf securities Throughout 2007, Goldman sold RMBS and CDO securities to its clients without disclosing its own net short position against the subprime market or its purchase of CDS contracts to gain from the loss in value of some of the very securities it was selling to its clients.
Goldman took a substantial portion of the short side of the CDO, essentially betting that the assets within the CDO would fall in value or not perform. Goldman’s short position was in direct opposition to the clients to whom it was selling the CDO securities, yet it failed to disclose the size and nature of its short position while marketing the securities. While Goldman sometimes included obscure language in its marketing materials about the possibility of its taking a short position on the CDO securities it was selling, Goldman did not disclose to potential investors when it had already determined to take or had already taken short investments that would pay off if the particular security it was selling, or RMBS and CDO securities in general, performed poorly.
While Goldman sometimes included obscure language in its marketing materials about the possibility of its taking a short position on the CDO securities it was selling, Goldman took 100% of the short side of the $2 billion CDO, betting against the assets referenced in the CDO, and sold the Hudson securities to investors without disclosing its short position. When the securities lost value, Goldman made a $1.7 billion gain at the direct expense of the clients to whom it had sold the securities.
In the case of Anderson, Goldman selected a large number of poorly performing assets for the CDO, took 40% of the short position, and then marketed Anderson securities to its clients. When a client asked how Goldman “got comfortable” with the New Century loans in the CDO, Goldman personnel tried to dispel concerns about the loans, and did not disclose the firm’s own negative view of them or its short position in the CDO. In the case of Timberwolf, Goldman sold the securities to its clients even as it knew the securities were falling in value. In some cases, Goldman knowingly sold Timberwolf securities to clients at prices above its own book values and, within days or weeks of the sale, marked down the value of the sold securities, causing its clients to incur quick losses and requiring some to post higher margin or cash collateral. Timberwolf securities lost 80% of their value within five months of being issued and today are worthless. Goldman took 36% of the short position in the CDO and made money from that investment, but ultimately lost money when it could not sell all of the Timberwolf securities
. In the case of Abacus, Goldman did not take the short position, but allowed a hedge fund, Paulson & Co. Inc., that planned on shorting the CDO to play a major but hidden role in selecting its assets. Goldman marketed Abacus securities to its clients, knowing the CDO was designed to lose value and without disclosing the hedge fund’s asset selection role or investment objective to potential investors. Three long investors together lost about $1 billion from their Abacus investments, while the Paulson hedge fund profited by about the same amount. Today, the Abacus securities are worthless.
In the Hudson and Timberwolf CDOs, Goldman also used its role as the collateral put provider or liquidation agent to advance its financial interest to the detriment of the clients to whom it sold the CDO securities. Both Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank underwrote securities using loans from subprime lenders known for issuing high risk, poor quality mortgages, and sold risky securities to investors across the United States and around the world. They also enabled the lenders to acquire new funds to originate still more high risk, poor quality loans. Both sold CDO securities without full disclosure of the negative views of some of their employees regarding the underlying assets and, in the case of Goldman, without full disclosure that it was shorting the very CDO securities it was marketing, raising questions about whether Goldman complied with its obligations to issue suitable investment recommendations and disclose material adverse interests.
Goldman Sachs had helped to build an active mortgage market in the United States and had accumulated a huge portfolio of mortgage related products. In late 2006, Goldman Sachs decided to reverse course, using a variety of means to bet against the mortgage market. In some cases, Goldman Sachs took proprietary positions that paid off only when some of its clients lost money on the very securities that Goldman Sachs had sold to them and then shorted. Altogether in 2007, Goldman’s mortgage department made $1.1 billion in net revenues from shorting the mortgage market. Despite those gains, Goldman Sachs was given a $10 billion taxpayer bailout under the Troubled Asset Relief Program,70 tens of billions of dollars in support through accessing the Federal Reserve’s Primary Dealer Credit Facility,71 and billions more in indirect government support.
So there you go. Pissed? You should be and this is only the tip of the iceberg.
If you enjoyed that, you read the whole report. mmmmmmmmmmm
This is excellent ....
ReplyDeleteIn the same vein, I heard a very interesting interview of Bill Black by Tom Ashbrook on NPR's "On Point" yesterday .... Well worth listening to:
http://www.wbur.org/media-player?url=http://onpoint.wbur.org/2011/10/18/prosecuting-wall-street&title=Prosecuting+Financial+Titans&pubdate=2011-10-18&segment=1&source=onpoint.
Also, AmpedStatus.com is well worth checking out, if you don't already know it. There's a link there to a Dylan Ratigan interview with Bill Black and David DeGraw on MSNBC:
http://ampedstatus.org/ows-interview-prosecute-the-wall-street-mafia-will-black-dylan-ratigan-david-degraw-on-the-destruction-of-the-rule-of-law/
As I read this, I couldn't help but think of Goldman as a restaurant putting bad meat in the stew -- they owned it and they wanted to realize a profit from what should have been a loss. That's immoral, yes, and I assume illegal.
ReplyDeleteOf course, the diners were not told that Goldman Sachs was also in the stomach pump business, the milk of magnesia business, and the used restaurant furniture business. The last is most significant, because while they were ladling up their stew to trusting clients, they had already contracted to shutter Chez Ptomaine because it would soon be known as a bad restaurant.
Their defense? Public emergency rooms are open 24/7, using tax dollars to help the sick. Then came the bailouts of the larger failing restaurants. And this year, the chef is getting a big bonus.
Words fail me. But the feelings don't.
God damn it, I was starting to settle down about all this shit when you post this. I think it is crucial to recognize the roles that Phil and Wendy Gramm played in all this stuff. She got rules passed that allowed the Enron fiasco
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/17/opinion/enron-and-the-gramms.html. He was behind the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act and also made sure that derivative trading was not regulated http://motherjones.com/politics/2008/05/foreclosure-phil.
I think the important thing here, as the links show, is that they didn’t come up with those ideas themselves. They were funded and amply rewarded by the industries they deregulated. Same with most of the others who assisted in creating the mess we have today. I think this is part of what is driving the Occupy Wall Street movement – people want to see punishment for the activities that generated the financial collapse with all its attendant consequences. I also think it shows that we need to put much higher walls up between the political world and the non-political world. The constant movement back and forth of staffers and the availability of very lucrative positions as lobbyists and corporate big shots for politicians has tainted the whole system. And yeah, it’s always been that way, that’s why now elect senators and don’t have state legislatures appoint them, but we have a couple of really serious issues facing us right now and we are not responding to them at all the way we should be. I honestly think we are, in some ways where we were in 1850 when the system was coming apart – and we know how that turned out. And in some ways, it is the same argument.
OK, now I have to try to sleep. Thanks.
Anon
ReplyDeletei will follow up on your links - I couldn't agree more. i think repeal of the Glass-Steagall act was one of the biggest mistakes made in this whole mess. it has led us to the Too Big Too Fail institutions.
I should just learn to ignore these things so I could get some sleep. But not because it makes me angry, it's because there's a whole other side to the story that's not being told. I'll make one disclaimer now - I've only found out about what I'm discussing below, so I'll need more time to get statistics. The facts themselves are on many sites from many reports.
ReplyDeleteI wanted to find out exactly how the financial crisis started. I'm not talking about policies that pushed for higher home ownership, or the practices of some financial institutions to use CDOs and Credit Default Swaps to earn a few extra bucks, or even the creative Bank loans to allow someone to meet some type of payment program - be it ARM, 50 yr. loans, Hybrids .. whatever.
The thing I really wanted to understand is why did these homeowners go into default to begin with? Unemployment was still near 4.5%, so families weren't losing income. I thought home owners with ARM loans simply couldn't make the payments once the interest rate increased, but as it is, defaults for both ARM and Fixed Rate loans created between 2001 through 2008 are nearly identical. I then thought it was simply those with poor credit and otherwise strapped (with fixed rate loans) got into the loan they really couldn't afford when taking fully into account life's other expenses, but as it turns out, those with higher credit ratings defaulted 50% more than those with lower credit.
So as it turns out, a large number of the defaults were "strategic defaults" - those that simply stopped paying even though they could. Of the articles and papers I've read over the past 5+ hours, the most common explanation why people did this was simply because they no longer wanted to pay (e.g.) $600K for a home that was now only worth $300K. Once this ball started ... well, you know the rest.
Like I said. It's a different (major) side of the story, yet oddly - you don't hear about this in the media or other liberal sources of news.
So while I still don't see what those in the financial industry did that was actually illegal, I hope you ("Cake") can agree that what these people did should be considered criminal. They deliberately defaulted on a contract with their financial institution, a system that is built on trust, and in the process started the financial collapse.
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ReplyDeleteand now a word from my baby sister who is the president of a small locally owned mortgage company and almost as smart as me - Cake
ReplyDeletehere is what she said....
"I could make it even worse for JF by telling him that there are actual some economists that think that these strategic defaulters are contributing to a certain part of the economy for big ticket items such as big screen TVs etc. Think about it. Let's say your mortgage payment is 2k per month and suddenly you stop paying. You get to live in the house for anywhere from two to four years - 2K X 24 months = a lot of big screen TVs and vacations etc. and if you get "lucky" and get 2K X 48 months = wow did I just bleep the system over and therein my brother lies the moral hazard after the moral breakdown.
I have never seen stats that show that fixed rates defaulted at same rate as ARMs-- if that is true it would be a very surprising stat to me. I think that you have to almost think of this as a storm and the storm has turned into a tornado that is creating a vortex. There is no single devil. The devil was a combination of all the things JF mentions coming together -- start with a ARM (little bit riskier than fixed), mix in Fannie and Freddie being completely unregulated - given the backing of the full faith and credit of the US gov't and then lobbying the powers that be to death to get more and more with all of the risk at the feet of the tax payers, mix in mortgage products so complicated that yours truly, a simple mortgage banker, would not offer them! I could barely understand them myself and I said if I can't explain them to my average JF (sorry) customer, than I'm not offering them. Then mix in the hiding of the risk layers by pooling the loans and the fire that really lit the match was NIV (no income verification loans). The glue holding all of this together was both sides of the aisle believing home ownership was best for all and greed from Fannie/Freddie and Wall Street. As folks defaulted in droves and it became clear that there is no consequence others started looking around saying why should I pay? It's a nightmare and it's very bad for the economic recovery of this country.
The solution is not for the gov't to write 2300 pages of regulation. That hasn't worked, it's made things much, much worse and the vortex is sucking more and more folks into it and the situation is getting worse not better and that vortex can drag everyone into one way or another. You can't control morality - people are going to continue to strategically default - but if we stabilize the real estate market - we can hopefully stop building the power of the vortex.
If JF thinks that strategic defaulters are bad, try researching cash for keys - houses are being trashed by people as they leave them and lenders are now often opting to pay people not to trash them. How is that for absolutely disgusting.
We need leadership and that leadership has to have some moral high ground to stand on. Unfortunately at the last presidential election both Obama and McCain were among the top beneficiaries of Fannie donations. Obama was much higher from what I recall but McCain was no angel in that area. Is there anyone out there that hasn't rec'd lobbyist $? Where have you gone JF DiMaggio?"
CoD did you bring me in this to try and get me riled up too?
ReplyDeleteJF, I admire you wanting to do the research to back up your side of the argument. I found a couple of charts that back up what your comment says about better credit score = higher chance the default is strategic. However I cannot seem to get them to import here. What kind of two-bit operation is this?
However, I completely disagree with you (for once) that strategic default is criminal. Banks have equal responsibility ensuring that the money they lend goes toward a legitimate investment. The reason is that banks have collateral in the form of the house. If the person who took out the mortgage cannot or will not pay, the bank gets the house (plus whatever payments). If the collateral is worth less than when the loan was originated, that's the risk that the bank takes. It also why down payments were required for such a long time. Down payments limited the risk banks took. Coincidence that they are back in vogue again?
Let me use another analogy of employer/employee to illustrate my perspective. A business exists to make a profit. If the business can make a higher profit by hiring an employee, it will hire. The employee agrees to employment for wages and benefits. Note that this constitutes a mutually beneficial transaction. If the employee finds better employment, they are free to leave. Likewise if the business finds that the employee causes a loss of profit, they are free to let that employee go or otherwise the entire business may be at risk.
In either situation, employer/employee and bank/mortgage holder, the parties work together for mutual benefit. If there is not mutual benefit, then either party is free to follow another course.
p.s. if anyone who is considering strategic default reads this, consult an attorney! Depending on your state of residence, there could be serious ramifications to walking away from your mortgage.
And let's not forget where subprime loans lent to homeowners with below-average credit scores and almost no equity in their properties were bundled, given AAA grades and sold. If the loans would have been properly graded as high risk I wonder how different things would have been. I would assume less institutions would have bought the bundled loans resulting in lower demand and the market forces would have required lenders to make better loans. I agree with BOz that at a minimum there is equal blame - but I would lean towards assigning the ultimate responsibility on the financial institutions. All of this could not have happened without those practices. Look what we have now - people are having a difficult time getting loans - they are not driving the process here.
ReplyDeleteOK, this is interesting. I know shit about it so I can be an authority. JF, do you have any cites for what you say? I would enjoy looking at them. Some observations:
ReplyDelete(1) If the economy was humming along, how did people get underwater to begin with? The lender should have made sure they had the right income levels and that the house was appraised properly.
(2) After doing some looking around, it is clear that there are at least two main schools of argument for bankruptcy. One, supports COD’s Little Sister (CODLS) and says over consumption is the main cause. The other says medical problems are the main reason. Has anyone found something definitive on this? It would definitely point the way to reasons for bailing on a house.
(3) In general, I’m very skeptical of arguments that point to the poorest and least powerful in society as reasons why the richest and most powerful got burned. Especially when the richest and most powerful end up richer and more powerful after the burning.
Now, two anecdotes that don’t mean squat but which have shaped my opinion of this particular burst bubble:
(1) From roughly 1998-2003 my wife and I were playing softball on a coed team. One of the other guys playing was a mortgage broker for a small company. He was making money hand over fist and laughing about how easy it was to get people into mortgages and get his cut. He was a good guy but not a particularly sharp guy or someone who would weigh the rights and wrongs of getting people into loans that were not appropriate for them. Multiply him by a million and you may have a problem.
(2) For reasons that make little sense, I was involved for many years with a young Cambodian kid who was part of the whole Khymer Rouge thing. I helped him in various ways and a few years before the crash helped him and his wife get a small restaurant. After it was clear the restaurant would make it they decided to buy their first house. In reality, they were not ready to do that but the lender quickly got them into an ARM that became a real burden. They eventually sold the house for a loss. From what I could tell, the lender had done zero due diligence, that is, zero honest due diligence. Multiply them by a million and you may have a problem
Boz - since we had a chance to talk I can respond. To bring everyone else up to speed - you're position is that those in the banking industry responsible for approving home mortgages knew that the homes being used as collateral for the home loans had much less value than what the current assessment and more importantly, than the agreed upon price between seller and buyer. Therefore, they are responsible because they shouldn’t have approved these loans. To provide what I hope you will consider a worthy response, I have to break this point into two sections – the first part addressing the banker knowledge of market trends, the second part having to do with shift of responsibility.
ReplyDeleteSimply put, I don’t know how a banker/mortgage approval agent could possibly know more about the future value of a home (i.e., speculation) more than the customer and real estate agents familiar with the area and specifics. I would actually expect the customer and real estate agents to be more knowledgeable, or at worst the same. You can probably convince me the bankers somehow have an “inside track” that the public doesn’t have, but my position won’t change because of the next part of this discussion.
Aside of course in cases of fraud, I’m a believer in the “buyer beware” principle, and this applies to much more than having a bank let you borrow enough money to purchase a home at a value that the seller and buyer agreed to. This applies to medical and financial advice/recommendations, employer/employee contract and hiring negotiations—the list goes on and on. Even the bank does not simply trust the agreed price of a home to determine its’ value. The bank will have an independent appraisal done, which BTW is based on the same market data the buyer, seller, and respective real estate agents used to determine the contract price and conditions. So even if the bank “knows” (“thinks” is more appropriate), the agreed upon price one pays for a home is the responsibility of the buyer.
I can’t help but make one more point here before I let you off the hook. It’s not accurate to say that the value of a home is really much less than the selling price because it will be worth less sometime in the future. The value is exactly what the market will bear, which at the point of sale is exactly the price the seller and buyer have agreed upon.
I lied – I have to make just one more point then I promise, I’ll let you off the hook. Except for a home and very few other cases, large ticket items generally are: 1. Purchased on credit, and 2. Almost immediately drop in value. The list of common items that fall into this category are (but is not limited to), Cars, Furniture, and those big TV’s that are “helping our economy” (that was sarcastic, but I’ll address that later).
Since these items look the same from a cost/expense model as a home purchase, then why should consumers have to continue paying for these items at the original price once the item drops in value? Of course, in my opinion – there’s no difference. The consumer is obligated to make all payments as long as they can, regardless of the future value of the product they purchased. Or to take another approach, if you buy a home that goes up in value, do you then pay the bank MORE money than you agreed to on the original loan.
So even though I disagree with you on the point that the people weren’t primarily responsible for starting the collapse, I can’t argue that the actions are not understandable in the given circumstances. The pure dollar amount involved in home equity or loss is so much larger (e.g., $100K to $300K+) than a Car or any other item, that most people I think would be very motivated to allow their mortgage to go into foreclosure given similar circumstances (upside-down of > $100K). With a family to take care of and not in the upper income bracket COD (and wife) are in … I would have to seriously think about it for my case should I ever find myself in a similar set of conditions. But that doesn’t mean I’m not responsible for the results of my actions.
I hope my comments are relevant at this point – there has been a couple of comments since I last posted. I want in on this!!! You guys are having all the fun – I believe the discussion was focused on what triggered the financial crises or at least what fueled it – I believe JF’s research indicated Qualified Default rate was 4% in Q4/2004 and peak of 20% in Q4/2008. JF’s position is that the fault lies here. Correct me if I am wrong please.
ReplyDeleteI would not be surprised if the acceptance criteria for a qualified loan changed from 04 to 08. If the standards were lowered than the numbers would not be comparable. Higher risk people would have been given qualified loans (This is just my theory at this point).
In my efforts to better understand I have been buried in the Subcommittee report “Wall Street and the Financial Collapse”. The Subcommittee identified the 4 main factors that contributed to the financial crises.
1. high risk lending by U.S. financial institutions;
2. regulatory failures
3. inflated credit ratings
4. high risk, poor quality financial products designed and sold by some investment banks
The subcommittee concluded that inaccurate AAA credit ratings was the most significant factor that introduced risk into the U.S. financial system and constituted a key cause of the financial crisis. In addition, the July mass downgrades, which were unprecedented in number and scope, precipitated the collapse of the RMBS and CDO secondary markets, and perhaps more than any other single event triggered the beginning of the financial crisis.
As I make progress more - it is 646 pages.
Why did I look at this blog before going to bed tonight? I don't have time for one my long responses, so you'll have to make do with this shorter response.
ReplyDeleteJF, banking is all about risk management. My position is that a bank is responsible to it's shareholders and bondholders to ensure that the collateral they accept to guarantee a loan is properly valued otherwise the bank is taking on more risk than is prudent.
While I wanted to go into large detail about what I think a bank could do to mitigate the risk, I'm just going to set myself up with one nice fat pitch to knock out of the ballpark. Going back a few years, how might a bank judge if property values are fair? (Side note: I hate that this forum doesn't allow me to post pictures.) Google the following "chart of las vegas home prices" and hopefully the first entry you get is: Las Vegas Home Prices and Home Values in NV - Zillow Local Info. Click that link and on the left hand side of the page that opens, select a Time Period of 10 Years. Note how home values roughly double in 4 years. Feel free to search other metro areas like LA, Phoenix, Miami. Do you think this level of price appreciation is normal in housing?
Banks also knew that subprime borrowers (http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/02/subprime_market.html) were a growing part of the mortgage market (as they have the data on the people whom they lend money). Additionally banks knew that the majority of these people were taking out adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). Furthermore interest rates from the Federal Reserve were 2.0% or below from November 2001 until November 2004. What do you think the odds were for a rise in rates to cool off the housing market? I ventured to guess better than 50/50. As rates rise, ARMs reset to a higher rate leading to higher defaults. As property values fall due to the defaults, many people find themselves underwater with regard to their mortgage (my brevity here is due to the hour - it was a cascade event as job losses compounded the event).
My point here is this: if I saw this possibility (with a lot of help from the people I was reading), then why couldn't the banks?
And while I agree that the buyer agrees to the price of the house, the mortgage essentially says that the bank takes the house if the buyer doesn't adhere to the mortgage payments. A further reason this is good is because banks are less likely to let a house price bubble form again.
Ok, more on appraisers and mortgage originators later, but as a preview, originators wanted to get paid so they only used appraisers who would give them the number that got the deal done. As appraisers wanted to get paid, it's fair to say that they went along with this. Investment banks didn't care so much because they'd package these mortgages and sell them off so they'd get their fee.
Pay the bank more money than you agreed to? Come on JF, it's a contract... The same contract that says the bank takes back the house if you don't pay. How is it my fault if the bank makes a lousy business decision? In my view of capitalism, that bank deserves to fail.
Wish I had time to comment on CoD's reply, but it's going to have to wait... good night everybody!
To be clear, I'm only trying to understand how the burst started so in a way that can be applied to help improve the current economic conditions (i.e., high unemployment). If in the process of doing this I can open the minds of some on the left to the idea that just maybe the people aren't always the victims - that sometimes they are the villains, then I would have accomplished more than I could possibly have imagined;-)
ReplyDeleteFirst, the previous number of 20% was from 2008. The latest numbers found at (http://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/strategic-default-accounted-for-31-percent-of-foreclosures-in-first-quarter/) is 31%!! That is, out of all foreclosures 31% are strategic. Meaning, the are caused by people that could make the required payment but chose not to.
Why is this so important to our current situation of continued high unemployment rate? Unfortunately I don't know as much about the world economy as Boz (or most anyone else) does, and couldn't explain it quite so eloquently either. But I do know that or economy is highly dependent on credit. Credit allows our government and many private companies to operate, it allows some living paycheck-to-paycheck to keep up, it allows most people to purchase major ticket such as housing, cars, furniture, and TV's. It's everywhere. Our economy would almost immediately shutdown if credit was ever totally froze.
Of course credit is not totally frozen now, but it's much tighter than it's been in as long a time than most of us can remember. This brings us back to the 31%.
Remember, the 31% are defaults from people that could continue to make the required payment but chose not to. It's not from those in financial hardship from unemployment or unsustainable mortgage payment due to increased ARM interest. It's also not from people that never should have been qualified to begin with.
We're talking about the "ideal home mortgage customer" when measured by any standard except one - the customer's willingness to make the payments.
Given that, the banks in my opinion logically reacted by severely tightening their lending practices, making it very difficult even for those with good credit to get a loan. This restricts the economy and has the real potential to keep it down for a very long time.
The sad thing is there are solutions, but nothing will happen as long as the OWS and left continue to think the people are the victims, that we need to go after the big corporations and the wealthy, and that we need to continue to fight 3+ year old battles. I guess organizations like "MoveOn.org" don't quite get the "move on" part (..that was a joke, but not really)
I owed those that read my responses one last reply. That is to address the type of loans that ran into default and foreclosures from 2005-2009 (fixed rate vs. arms). Oddly, it's very difficult to find unbiased information on this seemingly simple topic. Factors that have to be taken into account are that arm loans became very popular between 2006-2008 so the analysis can't be done on raw numbers. One also has to consider when unemployment started to rise and the duration of the load when it defaulted.
ReplyDeleteThe best/most recent report I found on this is "Mortgage Defaults", by Shane M. Sherlund Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 8, 2010. I think it's worth the 12 page read for anyone interested in home loan default buildup that led to the crisis. If you do choose to read this, keep in mind that unemployment didn't rise significantly until 2009 (it was 5.4% in 2008), but the significant increase in housing defaults started in 2007. So when "one" says that the financial institutions caused the crisis - presumably via economic collapse and mass unemployment, my questions is simply how can that be when the housing crisis started before unemployment rose? or when some of the defaults occurred within 2 years of loan origination?
I've read a lot on this topic and following the timelines I don't see how you can blame the financial institutions for the crisis. That is - unless you consider the people the "victims", not knowing what they were doing when signing home loan contracts. Of course, taking that position you can argue any fault of the individual away.
First response - So given the rise in defaults preceded the spike in unemployment then it would seem that the defaults were solely caused by the drop in home prices. The government began its bailout of the financial corporations (largely responsible for the crises) and the homeowner with the resulting underwater asset watches big business get saved? Was there really anything done of the magnitude of the bailout to keep people from walking away (not saying it right but I wonder about fair)
ReplyDelete("..financial corporations .. largely responsible for the crisis..")
ReplyDeleteReally? You're sticking to this line? without any justification, timeline of events, or argument? Nice.
Well, for those that are interested in discussing the facts, I've had some time to put together a somewhat timeline of major events during this time. As far as I can tell, it goes something like this:
- The Fed starts increasing the Prime Rate rate in July 2004 from a low of 4% to peak of 8.25% in July 2006 where it remained there until Oct 2007. This lines up eventually with the slowdown of the housing market - i.e., interest rates eventually price potential homeowners out of a mortgage and starts causing sellers to reduce their prices. It also causes some individuals to get an ARM loan instead of a Fixed Rate mortgage.
- Housing prices rise from a median of ~ $230K in 2004 up to median of ~$280K in 2006. But quickly turns down in early 2006, back to median of ~$230K in 2008 and low of ~$180K in 2009.
As a side note:
In 2005, the US Bankruptcy law changed. Prior to 2005, someone that filed bankruptcy could discharge most of their debt leaving their remaining income to pay their mortgage. As of 2005, the cost of filing went up and the amount of debt that could be discharged decreased. It meant that filing bankruptcy post 2005 left you with less disposable income which for some would no longer have been enough to cover their mortgage payment. This had a fairly severe impact on default rates -- both prime and sub-prime mortgage default rates rose by ~15%, or by the number of defaults the increase was ~200,000 per (note that this was 2006-2006, before the major portion of the crisis started).
- Mortgage default rates "..hit an all time high in the first quarter of 2007.." of 2.87% "..surpassing the worst levels following the 2001 recession".
THIS is the point where ARM loans become a problem!! They were generally at the fixed low rate for the first 2 years, then increasing by 1 or 2% max per year to some overall max for the life of the loan. Many individuals just assumed they could refinance to a fixed-rate loan before they reached this 2-year mark, but of course with reduced home values that no longer became an option.
Getting back to how this relates to unemployment, which is an indicator of the financial health of the country --
- Unemployment rates remained steady at ~4.7% through 2007. It wasn't until March 2008 where it started to rise to just 5.1% but continued up through 9.4% in May 2009 (and so on...).
So there was an initial increase in both prime and sub-prime defaults in 2005-2006, then the shift toward sub-prime defaults due to ARM loans and housing price decreases in 2007 which THEN ... according to the timeline .. led to financial "damage" and the rise in unemployment. Don't forget my previous discussions on "Strategic Defaults" which clearly adds to the "damage" of the financial system.
But note that I chose "damage" instead of "collapse" because I still hold the government and the financial institutions responsible for making what should have been a complete disaster a near meltdown.
JF - you have clearly identified and analyzed a number of things that caused damage to the U.S economic system - the question is - if the financial institutions and government agencies did not engage in negligent, certainly fraudulent if not criminal activities would your factors alone have caused the 2008 meltdown – The Levin-Coburn Senate report detailed four factors that contributed to the crises - all either financial institutions or government related - High Risk Lending, Regulatory Failure, Inflated Credit Ratings, and Investment Bank Abuses.
ReplyDeleteThe FBI has been warning of an "epidemic" of mortgage fraud since September 2004. The FBI correctly identified the epidemic of mortgage control fraud at such an early point that the financial crisis could have been averted had the Bush administration acted with even minimal competence.
It was also reported that the lenders initiated 80% of these frauds and the FBI predicted a financial crises. A warning was sent to lenders that stated incomes loans (known in the lending industry as liar loans) were 90% fraudulent. The lenders overwhelming put the lies in the loans.
There was a terrible incentive to generate these incredibly risky loans - the worse the nonprime loan quality the higher the fees and interest rates, and the faster the growth in nonprime lending and pooling the greater the immediate fictional profits and (eventual) real losses.
It is a matter of scales – individuals walking away from loans can not equal the damage the financial institutions and government agencies reeked on the economic system. So is this the chicken or the egg – or are they not even in the same league when it comes to melting down the economy?
I have to apologize up-front for what I'm about to write, but this is for your own good.
ReplyDeleteYou claim to be interested in facts and doing honest research, but then continue to make comments like "..the financial crisis could have been averted had the Bush administration acted with even minimal competence". This comment can so easily be proven incorrect that something must be horribly wrong in either your process or your analysis. Since I know how very liberal you are (sorry, "progressive") my theory is you hate the Bush Administration so much that you research issues like this only to the point where it falls short of making the Bush Administration look positive in any way. The only other explanation I can come up with is you're limiting your research to sources that are very liberal. Either way, most of your highly liberal comments are wacky enough to be entertaining. This one is so far out in left field that it needs to be corrected before you spread the lie much further.
I don't even need to address this comment directly - I can let those involved speak for themselves. If you're interested in the truth, here are just a few of the many links available that will clear up any confusion you have (except the one about you hating the Bush Administration - I can't help you there until you admit you have a problem):
Summary of the timeline and words directly from members of congress, including Barney Frank:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMnSp4qEXNM
Summary Article of Bush Proposal of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac Supervision in 2003:
http://www.bucksright.com/bush-proposed-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-supervision-in-2003-1141
NY Times article 2003 on Bush administration proposal to create new organization within Treasury Dept. to assume supervision of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/11/business/new-agency-proposed-to-oversee-freddie-mac-and-fannie-mae.html
Timeline from 2001 through 2008 outlining the continued warnings and push for regulatory control over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the Bush Administration, which Congress finally did in July 2008:
http://nicedeb.wordpress.com/2008/09/21/the-white-house-warned-congress-about-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-17-times-in-2008-alone/
The wall street bankster are to blame for everything. Its time we rounded them up. And exchanged those three piece suits and briefcases for a good pick a shovel a bucket and some nice old fashion pinstripes.
ReplyDelete